[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 23 10:33:51 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low today. The
solar wind speed remained between 250 and 270 km/s for
almost the whole UT day today. The north-south component
(Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly
negative for most part of the UT day today. There was some
anticipation of a coronal hole effect to strengthen the solar
wind stream from 22 to 25 March. The effect did not eventuate
on 22 March. This effect of the coronal hole may eventuate
from 23 to 25 March, but due to the elongated shape of the
coronal hole,it is difficult to predict its time and extent
of geoeffectiveness with reasonable confidence. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 11111312
Camden 3 11111211
Canberra 3 00121211
Hobart 3 00121211
Casey(Ant) 6 22311211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 5 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
24 Mar 7 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
25 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity levels to
unsettled levels on 23, 24 and 25 March with some possibility
of isolated active periods on 24 and 25 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude
locations on 24 and 25 March due to a possible rise in
geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 11 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most part of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of isolated minor degrdations on 24
and 25 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 19300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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