[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 21 10:36:03 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind
speed has continued to decline and is currently about 310 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated
between +/-2 nT. An extended, equatorially located coronal hole
has now reached central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11102211
Darwin 0 -------0
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22103211
Camden 2 11101110
Canberra 1 10001100
Hobart 2 10102111
Casey(Ant) 4 12211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
23 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Conditions may become unsettled later on 21 and 22 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal Fair
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal Fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs possible at low latitudes. Spread
F may degrade night time communications at low and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
observed at Darwin 13-16 UT. Spread F observed at
Darwin 14-17 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 25% depressions
02-06 UT observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Island.
Spread F observed at Hobart 10-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed much
of the night.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
at low latitudes likely to continue.
22 Mar 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
at low latitudes likely to continue.
23 Mar 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
at low latitudes likely to continue.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade low and high latitude communications
at night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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