[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 20 10:30:42 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Region 944
is due to return over the next 2-3 days however and LASCO and
SOHO images indicate minor activity close to the eastern limb.
Solar wind speed showed a steady decline over the last 24 hours
from 460 km/s to 360 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-2 nT. A small, equatorially
located coronal hole may become geo-effective in 2-3 days causing
moderate increases in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 4 12221101
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 01110001
Hobart 1 11110001
Casey(Ant) 5 2-321101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A small equatorially located coronal hole region may
become geo-effective in 2-3 days causing some Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions over a 24 hour period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed during local night
time hours at low latitudes. Significant sporadic E was also
observed at low latitudes throughout the UT day. HF propagation
at mid and high latitudes was normal. Expect these conditions
to continue over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions at
low latitudes likely to continue.
21 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next several days
in the Australian region with mild depressions in the equatorial
region due to particularly low sunspot numbers.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 57800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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