[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 18 09:25:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue. Region 0963 (S05W50) remains an EAO beta
class group and is not expected to produce significant flaring
in the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed has returned to pre-
coronal hole levels below 400km/s. The NS component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remains stable. A recurrent coronal
hole is expected to move into geoeffective position within the
next 2-3 days, with the associated high speed wind stream
expected late 19 or 20 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11120111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 1 11110000
Camden 1 11020000
Canberra 1 10020000
Hobart 2 02020100
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1221 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 4 Quiet
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the UT day
(17 July) with the exception of some Unsettled-Active periods
at high latitudes. Expect quiet conditions to prevail 18-19 July.
Generally Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods likely
20 July due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours, expected to continue. Some spread-F likely at higher
latitudes in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 14 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: With the exception of the S.Aus/NZ region which showed
enhanced MUFs overnight, the ionosphere in the Aus region was
mostly normal to slightly depressed. Similar conditions are expected
for 18 July. Periods of night time spread-F were observed in
the S.Aus/NZ region, also expected to continue 18 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 58100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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