[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 6 09:29:30 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters
continued to decline over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22223111
Darwin 4 22112011
Townsville 7 22223122
Learmonth 6 22223021
Camden 4 12213001
Canberra 5 22213011
Hobart 4 21213001
Casey(Ant) 15 33333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 4434 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 6 Quiet
07 Jul 4 Quiet
08 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters continued to decline over the
UT day. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at the time
of report issue. The observed geomagnetic field was mostly quiet
with isolated unsettled intervals at low to mid latitudes, and
generally unsettled at high latitudes. Expect mostly quiet conditions
next three days wth the chance of isolated unsettled periods
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Variable during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed over the entire
region especially local night. Periods of sporadic-E conditions
observed S Aus/NZ/S Ocean regions. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days. Mild depressions possible around local dawn
Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 261000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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