[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 5 09:43:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed peaked at over 600 km/s during the
mid part of the UT day. There was a brief elevation in proton
flux after 11 UT. Solar wind parameters now appear to be in decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 33342321
Darwin 12 33342221
Townsville 13 33342322
Learmonth 14 33343321
Camden 13 23352211
Canberra 15 33352321
Hobart 16 33252421
Casey(Ant) 14 33333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1111 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jul 6 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to increase over the first
half of the UT day, peaking at over 600 km/s, with moderate
fluctuations in the Bz component of the IMF. This led to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions at low to mid latitudes and active periods at
high latitudes. There was a period of active conditions at mid
latitudes during the mid part of the UT day. Solar wind parameters
now appear to be in decline. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
day one, with the possibility of active intervals at high latitudes.
Conditions should become quiet days two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable enhancements during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
regions. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Mild
depressions possible around local dawn Equatorial/N Aus regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list