[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 30 10:45:17 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a 
C3.4 flare from region 940 at 1656UT as well as a C1.5 at 2248UT. 
Solar wind speed increased from 360km/s at 0000UT to be 700km/s 
at the time of this report, due to high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) Bz, fluctuated between +/-15nT throughout 
the UT day with a sustained southward period between 1210UT-1410UT 
reaching a max of -20nT. Solar activity is expected to low for 
the next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   23335533
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          18   23335432
      Learmonth           27   23435553
      Camden              19   22325532
      Canberra            17   22324533
      Casey(Ant)          19   3---4433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Camden              65   (Active)
      Canberra            84   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              65   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1101 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
31 Jan    25    active 
01 Feb    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and 
is current for interval 29-30 January. Quiet to Minor Storm levels 
observed over the last 24 hours due to an high speed solar wind 
stream from a equatorial positioned coronal hole. Mostly Active 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor 
Storm periods. Unsettled to Active conditions for 31Jan and 01Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
31 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for low to mid latitudes 
observed over the last 24 hours, with MUF depressions of 20% 
during the first half of the UT day. Disturbed conditions observed 
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours with possible disturbed periods for mid-high latitudes 
due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Jan     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
during local day as well as Equatorial regions. Disturbed conditions 
observed for Anatarctic regions. MUF depressions of 20% possible 
over the next 24 hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions due to the increase in geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    55200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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