[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 29 10:47:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
only a minor B class flare from region 940. Solar wind speed
has begun to rise from 320km/s at 0000UT to be 360km/s at the
time of this report. Solar wind is expected to increase over
the next 24 hours due to a coronal hole that is now in geoeffective
position. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bz, fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the UT day
with no sustained southward periods. Solar activity is expected
to low for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22122121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22112122
Camden 4 22111111
Canberra 3 22111011
Casey(Ant) 11 4--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1200 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled
to possible Active periods are expected for the next 2 days with
an anticipated increase in solar wind parameters due to a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions forecast for the next 2 days, but with
possible disturbed periods for mid-high latitudes with an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions
during local day, with night time depressions observed for Northern
AUS. MUF depressions of up to 20% possible over the next 24 hours
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions with an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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