[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 17 10:39:38 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: AR938 is emitted five B-class and two lower C-class
flares. It is showing signs of diminishing, with background X-ray
flux slowly declining, also evident in 10.7cm flux. Some magnetic
complexity occurring in the leading portion of this beta sunspot
group may enhance flare potential but general decline of the
group suggests low intensity flares. A second portion of the
recurrent coronal hole took effect today with solar wind speed
(Vsw) rising from 03UT to be over 600km/s by 04UT and remaining
so until 17UT. Vsw rose sharply at ~22UT to nearly 700km/s but
then began declining. IMF Bz varied north and south and was only
sustained southwards from 12-15UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 14223333
Darwin 12 13213334
Townsville 12 24222333
Learmonth 13 14223333
Camden 11 03223333
Canberra 13 14223333
Casey(Ant) 15 3--33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22 2232 6431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 17 active
18 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A second portion of the recurrent coronal hole has taken
effect. Solar wind speed (Vsw) rose from 03UT to be over 600km/s
by 04UT and remained so until 17UT. IMF Bz varied north and south
and was only sustained southwards from 12-15UT. Geomagnetic activity
rose near 05UT corresponding to the Vsw onset and at high latitudes
near 14UT correspnding to Bz south. A Vsw spike towards 700km/s
occurred ~22UT causing at least high latitude geomagnetic activity
to rise.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: The mid-latitude ionosphere appears to be mostly normal
and slightly reduced although large reductions in MUFs due to
ongoing geomagnetic activity haven't occurred yet. Equatorial
and sub-equatorial latitudes appear enhanced although spread-F
is also prevalent, presumed to be the result of geomagnetic activity.
Strong sporadic E has again occurred in the Australian region
in the local night and morning, particularly in the south east
towards NZ and south towards the Southern Ocean. Some of the
Es is blanketing the F layer and long distance HF users may find
circuits operating on the usual frequencies but with reduced
amplitude due to greater number of hops.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 20 Unexpected low latitude enhancements have outweighed
slight mid-latitude depressions due to geomagnetic
activity, with the nett result of raising the
Autralian region T index rather than reducing
it. Continued enhanced geomagnetic activity should
decrease regional T index over the next day or
two, although perhaps only to near monthly average.
18 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The mid-latitude ionosphere is slightly reduced although
the expected large reductions in MUFs due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity haven't occurred yet. Equatorial (PNG - VNO, POM) and
sub-equatorial latitudes (DWN, TVL) show strong enhanments although
spread-F is also prevalent. Both effects presumed to be the result
of geomagnetic activity. Strong sporadic E has again occurred
in the local night and morning, particularly in the south east
across the Tasman Sea and south towards the Southern Ocean. Some
of the Es is blanketing the F layer and long distance HF users
may find circuits still operating on the usual frequencies but
with reduced amplitude due to greater number of hops.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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