[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 16 10:30:44 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: AR938 is the only region with sunspots on the visible
disc and emitted several B-class and one low C-class flare. The
recurrent coronal hole took effect today with solar wind speed
(Vsw) rising from ~350km/s at 07UT to over 600km/s by 17UT. Solar
wind temperature also rose markedly in this 07-17UT period.
IMF Bz (north-south) was also Predominantly southwards from 07-15UT, contributing to the geoeffectiveness of the high
Vsw. The coronal hole appears extended east-west and patchy in
the SOHO images. So even though Vsw declined from 17UT to ~500km/s
it is likely to remain elevated for at least a day. Vsw observed
at the L1 piint by the ACE s/c is showing signs of an upturn
at ~2230UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 22334323
Darwin 11 11333323
Townsville 11 22333322
Learmonth 17 22335333
Camden 13 2-334322
Canberra 12 22334322
Casey(Ant) 22 2-544333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 17 active
17 Jan 17 active
18 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The expected recurrent coronal hole has now taken effect.
The east-west extended and patchy hole is visible in SOHO imagery
and the leading major portion took effect at ~07UT. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) observed by ACE s/c at L1 point rose from ~350km/s
at 07UT to over 600km/s by 17UT. Kp correspondingly rose rapidly
to 6. Interplanetary Magnetic field IMF Bz (north-south) was
also predominantly southwards from 07-15UT, contributing to the
geoeffectiveness of high Vsw and adding to magnetic activity
via merging with the geomagnetic field. Vsw has declined to ~500km/s
but shows some indication of upturn at ~2230UT. Trailing patches
of the coronal hole are likely to cause elevated Vsw over the
next day or two. This should result in elevated geomagnetic activity,
with magnitude dependent on IMF Bz polarity..
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears to be mostly normal. There are
indications that MUFs may be starting to be slightly depressed
due to the active geomagnetic conditions in the last 12 hours.
This is due to high Vsw from a recurrent coronal hole. The hole
is patchy and extended east-west so high Vsw and geomagnetic
activity should continue for a day or two, possibly depressing
the ionosphere. Strong sporadic E has occurred in the Australian
region in the night and particularly morning.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 10 about 5 15% below predicted monthly values
17 Jan 0 about 10% below predicted monthly values
18 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are slightly reduced already due to high geomagnetic
activity overnight due to the elevated solar wind speed from
a recurrent solar coronal hole. They are likely to reduce further
over the next day or two depending on geomagnetic activity. Strong
sporadic E has been observed at most latitudes, particularly
overnight and early this morning, in some cases blanketing the
F. The south-eastern region appears particularly affected with
Trans-Tasman circuits showing strong Es. Indications of spread
F at low latitudes in PNG and northern Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 17700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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