[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 7 10:12:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: There is a slight chance for isolated C-class flares
from regions 10933 and 10935. Solar wind speed has decreased
to 450 km/s and should remain at this velocity til 9 January.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated
between +/- 2nT over the last 24 hours, however mostly southward
for the last 12 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin 3 11201211
Townsville 7 2222222-
Learmonth - --------
Camden 5 22211212
Canberra 5 12202212
Hobart 4 12202211
Casey(Ant) 12 3-423321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3223 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 6 Quiet
08 Jan 6 Quiet
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
to unsettled levels for the next several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
the next several days. Sporadic E has been noted in the Australian
region over the last several days particularly in the evening
and morning hours, expect this trend to continue.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 18 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 18 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms
at times, particularly noted in the evening and morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 623 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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