[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 6 10:36:05 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: There is a slight chance for isolated C-class flares 
from regions 10933 and 10935. Solar wind speed should steadily 
decrease though 06 January to near normal levels as coronal hole 
influence dissipates, presently 620km/s. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 
4nT over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22233222
      Darwin               8   22233112
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth            7   222-----
      Camden               7   22233111
      Canberra             8   12233122
      Hobart               8   22233211
      Casey(Ant)          10   ---33222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   3444 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet 
to unsettled levels for the next several days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next several days. Sporadic E has been noted in the Australian 
region over the last several days particularly in the evening 
and morning hours, expect this trend to continue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms 
at times, particularly noted in the evening and morning hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 647 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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