[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 14 10:35:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days. Solar wind speed is elevated at around 600 km/s under the
influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 32222333
Darwin 9 22222323
Townsville 11 32222333
Learmonth 15 3-------
Camden 10 22222333
Canberra 10 22222333
Casey(Ant) 17 4-442233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 0102 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained elevated at around 600 km/s
over the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF maintained an average
neutral polarity, limiting geomagnetic activity. Despite the
elevated solar wind speed, geomagnetic conditions remained quiet
to unsettled, with isolated active intervals observed at high
latitudes only. Solar wind parameters should remain elevated
for the next two days, with the possibility of active periods
at low to mid latitudes and minor storming at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions observed at low to
mid latitudes, with localised enhancements and depressions. Mostly
normal propagation conditions observed at high latitudes. Isolated
periods of sporadic-E at some stations, with intensity and duration
less than the previous few days. Periods of disturbance possible
at mid to high latitudes next three days due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial
/Aus region, with localised enhancements and depressions. Sporadic-E
conditions observed at some stations, but intensity and duration
less than the previous few days. Some spread-F conditions observed
at high latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
Expect continuing low-latitude variability and periods of disturbance
at high latitudes next two to three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 42900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list