[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 13 10:31:57 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few 
days. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream onset occurred 
after 10UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11133323
      Darwin               9   10133323
      Townsville          12   12234323
      Learmonth            5   21------
      Camden               9   11133323
      Canberra             8   10033323
      Casey(Ant)          11   23333222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb    18    Active 
14 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet until 10UT. 
After that time the field became unsettled with isolated active 
intervals due to onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. 
Solar wind speed increased to around 500 km/s at the time of 
report isssue. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has shown fluctuations of +/- 10 nT, with no sustained 
periods of negative polarity. The geomagnetic field declined 
to quiet to unsettled towards the end of the UT day. Expect unsettled 
conditions next three days with the chance of active intervals 
especially at mid to high latitudes. 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1013UT on 12 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at mid to high 
latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at mid latitudes due 
to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance possible at mid 
to high latitudes next three days due to elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial 
/N Aus region, with mild depressions local night. Periods of 
disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus/Antarctic regions due 
to sporadic-E conditions. Sporadic-E less intense than on previous 
days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions 
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    22100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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