[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 26 10:15:45 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed
is low and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) stable. No
significant solar or solar wind activity is expected over the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 4 12212111
Learmonth 2 11111001
Camden 1 11101000
Canberra 0 00101000
Hobart 1 11101000
Casey(Ant) 6 3--22111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
28 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was Quiet
over the past 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions were observed
at high latitude stations with some isolated Active periods.
Quiet conditions are expected for the Australian region over
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Widespread MUF depressions and Sporadic-E observed 25
Dec, particularly at mid and low latitudes. These conditions
are likely to persist 26 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -37 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 23 December
and is current for interval 24-26 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours, particularly during the local day. Widespread
Sporadic-E was also observed across the Australian region over
the UT day degrading HF propagation propagation conditions.
Continuing MUF depressions are expected over the next few days
due to very low levels of solar activity, with significant
depressions possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E likely at
mid and low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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