[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 25 10:14:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed
has returned to its pre-coronal hole level of ~400km/s. No
significant solar or solar wind activity is forecast for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22231122
Learmonth 4 22110122
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 2 12101011
Hobart 2 12101001
Casey(Ant) 9 3-332121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2222 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 3 Quiet
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was mostly
Quiet over the past 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions were
observed at high latitude stations with some isolated Active
periods. Quiet conditions are expected for the Australian region
over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% over UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec -32 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Dec -35 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 23 December
and is current for interval 24-26 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours, particularly during the local day. Periods
of Sporadic-E were also observed at some mid to low latitude
stations over the past 24 hours which may have affected HF
propagation conditions. Continuing MUF depressions are expected
over the next few days due to very low levels of solar activity,
with significant depressions possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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