[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 16 10:07:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day with several
B-class flares. Active Region 10978 has decreased in magnetic
complexity over the last 24 hours(beta). There remains a possibility
of an isolated C-class flare for the next 24 hours. The solar
wind stream is presently approximately 390 km/s. Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was between +/- 3nT for
the last 24 hours. Expect a recurring coronal hole to become
geoeffective on 17 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11121111
Camden 3 11121111
Canberra 2 11120011
Hobart 3 11121110
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0102 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 4 Quiet
17 Dec 16 active
18 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On 17 December expect active geomagnetic levels due
to high speed solar wind stream with the possiblity of isolated
minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
17 Dec -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E (Es) throughout the
UT day in the Sydney area. Nuie showed Es during the evening,
night and dawn hours. Townsville, Norfolk Is., Brisbane showed
Es during the evening hours. Also note Scott showed spread F
on its ionograms throughout the UT day. Expect possible MUF depression
at high latitudes on the 17-18 December due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 85800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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