[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day with several 
B-class flares and two C-class flares. Active Region 10978 has 
decreased slightly in area and magnetic complexity over the last 
24 hours. There remains a good possibility of C-class flares 
for the next 24 hours. The solar wind stream is presently
around 480 km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was between +/- 4nT for the last 24 hours. Expect a recurring 
coronal hole to be geo- effective on 17 December. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221121
      Darwin               5   22211121
      Townsville           6   22221221
      Learmonth            5   21221121
      Camden               4   12221111
      Canberra             4   12221011
      Hobart               5   -3221111
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-4-2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 1010     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec     5    Quiet 
16 Dec     4    Quiet 
17 Dec    16    active 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Dec    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec     0    near predicted monthly values 
16 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support has improved due to the recent increase 
in sunspot activity. It is presently at near predicted values 
and is expected to remain so for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.63E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 548 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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