[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 2 10:43:16 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Very Low activity levels are expected to continue for the next 
3 days. Solar wind varied between 360km/s at 0000UT and 320km/s 
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               5   22121112
      Townsville           5   22221121
      Learmonth            4   21120122
      Camden               3   21110---
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               3   12112011
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec     5    Quiet 
03 Dec     5    Quiet 
04 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
03 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
04 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Dec   -25    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 1 December 
and is current for interval 1-3 December. Continued MUF depressions 
ranging from 10%-30% observed over all regions apart from Antarctic 
regions which only experienced mild depressions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    49700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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