[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 1 10:34:51 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity levels are expected to continue for the next
3 days due to no significant regions on the visible solar disk.
Solar wind velocity fell from 360km/s at 0000UT to be 340km/s
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Darwin 5 21121222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21121222
Camden 4 11121112
Canberra - --------
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continued MUF depressions ranging from 10%-30% observed
over all regions apart from Antarctic regions which only experienced
mild depressions. Forecast for the next 3 days is variable and
sometimes sustained depressed periods for Equatorial/Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Mild MUF depressions and some
isolated disturbed periods for Antarctic regions for this forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.21E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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