[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:14:24 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. However,
the east limb of the SOHO EIT image and the increase in GOES
background xray flux indicate a new flux region will be rotating
onto the solar disk. This may cause a slight increase in solar
activity as it rotates across the solar disk. The solar disk
is presently spotless. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
was mostly northward over the last 24 hours ranging from -3 to
5 nT. The solar wind is presently is steady around 440 km/s.
Expect a recurrent coronal hole to reach geoeffective position
in three days time late in the UT day on 27 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Darwin 4 21111121
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 23221222
Camden 2 21110011
Canberra 3 11120111
Hobart 2 11110111
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18 4541 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 4 Quiet
27 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at mostly
quiet levels until late in the UT day on 27 April, when effects
of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal
hole are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There may be minor depressions at low latitudes due
to low levels of solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed during the day at
Equatorial and N.Aus stations. Whilst MUF depressions are possible
in the Australian region today (25 April) they are only expected
to be mild.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 85500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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