[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 24 09:28:50 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There 
are no spots on the visible solar disk. The solar wind speed 
has declined rapidly from its peak of 550km/s to be ~400km/s 
near the end of the UT day. After some large fluctuations in 
the first half of the day, the interplanetary magnetic field 
Bz component has also settled to be 0+nT near the end of the 
UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   34420110
      Darwin               9   34311211
      Townsville          12   34421221
      Learmonth           17   45520200
      Camden               8   34310101
      Canberra             7   34310100
      Hobart               6   33310100
      Casey(Ant)          13   44431110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2222 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Apr     5    Quiet 
26 Apr     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions continued to be Unsettled with 
Active periods in response to the ramping up of the solar wind 
speed until the solar wind peak at around 09 UT. Following this 
geomagnetic activity quickly dropped back to Quiet levels where 
it remained for the remainder of the day. Some Minor Storm periods 
were observed at high latitudes in the first half of the UT day. 
Expect Quiet-Unsettled conditions today (24 April) returning 
to Quiet (25-26 April). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal today 
(24 April). Some variable HF conditions may be experienced at 
low latitudes, particularly during the local day. Minor MUF
depressions are possible at higher latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced  by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr     9    near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr     7    near predicted monthly values 
26 Apr     7    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was generally 
stronger than expected over the past 24 hours. MUFs were enhanced 
by 30% at most Australian and NZ stations throughout the local 
night. Some MUF depressions were observed during the day at 
Equatorial and N.Aus stations. Whilst MUF depressions are possible 
in the Australian region today (24 April) they are only expected 
to be mild. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    62300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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