[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 09:39:06 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind velocity increased from 400km/s at 0000UT to be 550km/s 
at the time of this report, with the arrival of coronal hole 
wind stream. Bz has had numerous southward periods with the maximum 
being -12nT at 01UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   33334334
      Darwin              15   33333333
      Townsville          18   33334334
      Learmonth           26   53334345
      Camden              20   33444324
      Canberra            21   33444334
      Hobart              18   33444323
      Casey(Ant)          21   44333344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Camden              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1103     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
03 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
04 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Unsettled to Active
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible Minor
Storm periods at high latitudes. Return to mostly Quiet
conditions for 04Apr. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours with some enhancements for low to mid latitudes and degraded 
conditions for high latitudes. A change in HF conditions is 
expected over the next 2 days with possible depressed MUFs for 
mid to high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Daytime enhancements observed for Equatorial/Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
region. Possible depressed conditions expected for Southern Aus/NZ 
regions and similar condtions for all other regions for the next 
2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    63200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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