[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:28:39 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
There was a narrow, East-directed CME visible in LASCO C3 imagery
after 11UT. This was most probably a far-side event. Solar wind
parameters commenced an upward trend late in the UT day which
may indicate onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 5 12122112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 22122222
Camden 3 01121111
Canberra 2 01121101
Hobart 2 00121101
Casey(Ant) 5 22311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2102 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 12 Unsettled
02 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind parameters indicate possible onset of the anticipated coronal
hole wind stream late in the UT day 31 Mar. Expect unsettled
to active conditions, with possible minor storm periods at high
latitudes next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Expect mostly normal conditions at low to mid latitudes.
Possible extended periods of degradation at high latitudes in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 25 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Localised depressions observed Equatorial regions. Minor
spread-F observed S Aus region. Periods of disturbance Antarctic
region. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N
Aus regions next three days. Disturbed periods possible S
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions in association with elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 63500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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