[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 5 09:53:16 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only minor B-class events. Solar wind velocity underwent
a notable step increase in velocity, temperature and density
very late in the UT day on 03Sep - due to a possible glancing
blow from a CME on 31Aug. A continued coronal hole influence
increased the solar wind velocity from 450km/s to be 600km/s
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be
very low over the next 2 days with no active regions currently
on disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 14 34332332
Darwin 13 34332322
Learmonth 14 33342332
Culgoora 11 33332321
Camden 9 0-332322
Canberra 15 34342331
Hobart 16 33443331
Casey(Ant) 16 -4332432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions where observed
over the last 24 hours as a result of the increase in solar wind
paramters. Solar wind velocity increased over the UT day to be
600km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component
of the IMF was southward between 0000UT and 0400UT at a maximum
of -10nT.Active periods where observed over all latitudes between
0600UT and 1200UT. Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 06Sep.
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1137UT on 04 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some enhanced periods observed at low latitudes. Disturbed
conditions observed for high latitudes. Normal HF conditions
observed for mid latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days with possible disturbed periods and depressions
for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed for Northern
Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions
observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours, with possible depressions and disturbances
for Southern Aus/NZ regions due to the increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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