[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events. Solar wind velocity delined from 
500km/s to be 400km/s at the time of this report. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours with only a 
slight chance of C-class activity. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Darwin               5   22212201
      Learmonth            6   21222212
      Culgoora             3   21121101
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             4   22122101
      Hobart               4   22122101
      Casey(Ant)          11   33322223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3111 1133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Sep     7    Quiet 
06 Sep     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions where observed over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity decreased and Bz, the north-south 
component of the IMF fluctuated slightly about neutral, between 
+/-3nT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for 05Sep-06Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed at low latitudes. 
Disturbed conditions observed for high latitudes. Normal HF conditions
observed for mid latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed for Northern 
Aus and Equatorial regions during local evenings/night. Disturbed 
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal ionospheric 
conditions for Southern Aus and NZ regions. Similar conditions 
are expected over the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    81800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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