[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   14221122
      Darwin               7   14221112
      Townsville           9   24222222
      Learmonth            9   14231122
      Culgoora             8   14221122
      Camden               6   13221022
      Canberra             7   14221022
      Hobart               6   13221022
      Casey(Ant)          17   35-32233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1102 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     7    Quiet 
01 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0333UT on 29 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    80700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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