[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently about 480 km/s. Regions 
926 and 927 produced several B class flares over the 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222211
      Darwin               4   11122112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   11123211
      Culgoora             6   12222221
      Camden               4   12122111
      Canberra             4   12122111
      Hobart               5   12213111
      Casey(Ant)           8   --322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov: 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2122 1121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     6    Quiet 
30 Nov     5    Quiet 
01 Dec     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal        
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Nov   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed up to 25% 05-14 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values otherwise.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed up to 25% around 00-08 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov     0    Depressions to 20% possible at low and mid latitudes. 
                High latitude MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
                monthly values. 
30 Nov     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
                Occasional depressions to about 20% still likely 
                at low and mid latitudes. 
01 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 572 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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