[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field to be mostly 
neutral varying between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind has steadily decreased to 460 km/s. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23221111
      Darwin               6   23221112
      Learmonth            6   23221120
      Culgoora             5   23121111
      Camden               6   23122111
      Canberra             9   232-----
      Hobart               6   23221111
      Casey(Ant)          11   34322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Learmonth           40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3432 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
17 May    12    Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          
17 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditons for the Australian region. 
High latitudes have had periods of degraded communication which 
may continue. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
16 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 
17 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal ionospheric conditions in the Australian 
region. High latidues have had minor disturbances, which may 
continue. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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