[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated 
between -3 and +3 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind is presently 
about 580 km/s due to coronal hole effects. SOHO LASCO imagery 
showed a CME commencing at approximately 1238 UT, 13 May, on 
the east limb of the sun. No associated activity on the earth-side 
of the sun, suspect it was far-side activity. When this region 
rotates onto earth-side of disk expect a possible increase in 
solar activity. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232121
      Darwin               8   23232211
      Learmonth            7   22232220
      Culgoora             5   22222111
      Camden               7   22232121
      Canberra             8   223320--
      Hobart               7   22332111
      Casey(Ant)          14   43333322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   4442 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 May    14    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: The Australian region was mainly quiet to unsettled. 
Expect geomagnetic activity to settle over the next 2 days as 
coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective location. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditons. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 May    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    25    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
16 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect normal ionospheric conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 636 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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