[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 15 10:16:36 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. This is expected
to continue. Newly numbered region 0860 produced a series of
B-class Xray flares over the day and is likely to continue flaring
at this level over 15 March. Isolated C-class flares possible
from this region. The Earth entered a high speed coronal hole
wind stream late on 14 March, which is expected to persist through
15 March and wane by 16 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11012011
Darwin 2 11011012
Learmonth 2 01012011
Culgoora 1 10011001
Camden 5 221-----
Canberra 2 10012001
Hobart 2 11002001
Casey(Ant) 7 23231012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 12 Unsettled
16 Mar 7 Quiet
17 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. A recurrent
high speed coronal hole wind stream may produce generally unsettled
geomagnetic conditions for 15 March. A return to predominantly
quiet conditions is expected for 16 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 15
March. However, minor degradation of HF conditions possible at
higher latitudes on 15 March in response to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variably Depressed/Enhanced to 30%,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
16 Mar 16 near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 17 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the N.Aus/PNG region showed significant
variability over the UT day with both large depressions and enhancements
of MUF by 30% of monthly predicted values. The ionosphere in
the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions was normal over the UT day. Expect
similar conditions on 15 March. However, minor ionospheric depressions
and HF degradation is possible in the NZ/Antarctic regions in
response to increased geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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