[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. This is 
expected to continue. A weak coronal hole is currently located 
30 degrees west of solar central meridian and may produce 
elevated solar wind speeds from 14 March and into 15 March. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11000001
      Camden               5   21122122
      Canberra             1   10100001
      Hobart               1   11100001
      Casey(Ant)           8   23331111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   0121 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. A 
coronal hole currently west of solar central meridian should 
move into geoeffective position today (14 March) and may cause 
unsettled periods later in the day, continuing into 15 March. 
A return to quiet geomagnetic conditions is expected for 16 
March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 14 
March. However, minor degradation of HF conditions possible at 
higher latitudes on 14 and 15 March in response to increased 
geomagnetic activity. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    16    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal over 
the past 24 hours. Expect mostly normal conditions on 14 March. 
However, minor ionospheric depressions and HF degradation possible 
in the NZ/Antarctic regions on 14 and 15 March in response to 
increased geomagnetic activity levels. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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