[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 
380 to 340 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost the 
whole day today. Solar activity is expected to continue 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12110101
      Darwin               2   12110101
      Learmonth            1   11110100
      Culgoora             2   12110001
      Camden               4   12121111
      Canberra             2   12110001
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           7   33321101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
06 Mar     5    Quiet 
07 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 05 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor depressions and degradations 
at high latitudes on 05 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Mar    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    18    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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