[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low levels. 
No flare was observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed 
first showed a gradual increase from 380 to 420 km/s by 0700UT 
and then decreased to 370 km/s by the time of this report. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed 
minor to moderate fluctuations, staying slightly northwards for 
most part of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to 
continue to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Learmonth            2   11101111
      Culgoora             3   11111111
      Camden               4   11112112
      Canberra             3   11111111
      Hobart               1   10------
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0111 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
05 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 05 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor depressions and degradations 
at high latitudes on 05 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Mar    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    21    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    19    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar    21    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    62700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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