[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 8 09:49:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rapidly increased over the UT day from
of the recurrent coronal hole. IMF Bz has mainly been southward
since 04UT so merging with the geomagnetic field has been strong.
AR892 (S07E41) has not shown any significant activity, only A
but no B class flares and the region appears to be simplifying.
New AR893 (S03E64) numbered today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 12343343
Darwin 16 1-343343
Learmonth 18 12343353
Culgoora 13 12343332
Camden 12 22342332
Canberra 15 02343343
Hobart 16 01343443
Casey(Ant) 14 13333243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 18 active
08 Jun 16 active
09 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Coronal hole took effect earlier than expected, with
solar wind speed increasing from 350km/sec to 550 km/sec over
the UT day. IMF Bz has also been mostly southwards from 04UT,
merging with the geomagnetic field and increasing it's activity,
particularly at polar latitudes. The combined effect of these
two conditions (high solar wind speed and IMF Bz south) has elevated
geomagnetic activty to unsettled and active over the day. There
are signs the geomagnetic activity is decreasing slightly at
23UT. The solar wind speed appears to still be increasing but
the Bz is likely to cease prolonged southwards soon.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are generally normal and do not seem to yet
be responding to the geomagnetic activity from the earlier than
expected solar coronal hole. Slight enhancements again at most
mid-latitude sites across the whole nighttime.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 22 about 5% above predicted monthly values
08 Jun 16 near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The T index has risen slightly above the historical
monthly average, despite disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Possibly
due to solar AR892 /893 providing ionising radiation. The recurrent
coronal hole took effect early on the geomagnetic field but this
does not appear yet to have depressed the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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