[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 7 09:44:12 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rapidly increased over the UT day from 
of the recurrent coronal hole. IMF Bz has mainly been southward 
since 04UT so merging with the geomagnetic field has been strong. 
AR892 (S07E41) has not shown any significant activity, only A 
but no B class flares and the region appears to be simplifying. 
New AR893 (S03E64) numbered today. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   12343343
      Darwin              16   1-343343
      Learmonth           18   12343353
      Culgoora            13   12343332
      Camden              12   22342332
      Canberra            15   02343343
      Hobart              16   01343443
      Casey(Ant)          14   13333243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun    18    active 
08 Jun    16    active 
09 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Coronal hole took effect earlier than expected, with 
solar wind speed increasing from 350km/sec to 550 km/sec over 
the UT day. IMF Bz has also been mostly southwards from 04UT, 
merging with the geomagnetic field and increasing it's activity, 
particularly at polar latitudes. The combined effect of these 
two conditions (high solar wind speed and IMF Bz south) has elevated 
geomagnetic activty to unsettled and active over the day. There 
are signs the geomagnetic activity is decreasing slightly at 
23UT. The solar wind speed appears to still be increasing but 
the Bz is likely to cease prolonged southwards soon. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are generally normal and do not seem to yet 
be responding to the geomagnetic activity from the earlier than 
expected solar coronal hole. Slight enhancements again at most 
mid-latitude sites across the whole nighttime. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    22    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    16    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The T index has risen slightly above the historical 
monthly average, despite disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Possibly 
due to solar AR892 /893 providing ionising radiation. The recurrent 
coronal hole took effect early on the geomagnetic field but this 
does not appear yet to have depressed the ionosphere. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:    29900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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