[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 28 10:50:54 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with region 848 producing the only notable event - a B5.6 class
flare at 1333UT. The solar wind velocity decreased from a maximum
of 700km/s at 0200UT to be 575km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field,
Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT throughout the UT day. Solar wind
speed paramters are expected to decline as the high speed solar
wind stream from the recent coronal hole decays.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32232222
Darwin 10 32232223
Learmonth 9 32223222
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 9 22232223
Hobart 9 32232222
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 29 4423 3654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 12 Unsettled
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed velocity decreased over the last 24
hours as predominently Unsettled conditions where observed. Solar
wind parameters are expected to decline significantly in the
next 12-24hours. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours and disturbed periods for high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected
to improve for low to mid latitudes with the chance of depressed
periods still possible over the next 2 days. Disturbed conditions
are expected for high latitudes over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 10 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 27 January
and is current for interval 27-28 January. Depressed conditions
observed again for both Equatorial/Northern Aus and Southern
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours as well as disturbed periods
for Antartic. Conditions are expected to improve over the next
2 days with expected decrease in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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