[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 10:51:43 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 848 produced a few minor B class events. Solar wind velocity
paramters increased over the UT day, with the solar wind velocity
rising from 450km/s at 0000UT to be 650km/s at the time of this
report. Bz was southward from 0000UT to 0300UT after which it
fluctuated between +/-10nT, with increased geomagnetic activity.
This increase in solar wind paramters is expected to be the last
effects of the current coronal hole that is moving out of geoeffective
position over the next 24-36 hours.
Correction to yesterdays report - only region 848 has
good flare potential, not region 850 as reported.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 33233444
Darwin 17 33233434
Learmonth 26 33233555
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 18 33233444
Hobart 18 34233434
Casey(Ant) 34 4--54544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1101 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed paramters increased over the last 24
hours resulting in isolated Active periods for mid to high latitudes.
Solar wind parameters are expected to decline as the current
geoeffective coronal hole approaches the west limb in the next
24-36 hours. Mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected
with possible Active periods for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed at low latitudes with
isolated depressions for mid to high latitudes. Some major disturbed
periods linked to increased geomagnetic activity in the last
24 hours for high latitudes. Periods of Spread F observed for
mid latitudes. Improving conditions are expected over the next
24-48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed again for Southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours as well as disturbed periods for
Antartic. Conditions are expected to improve in the next 2 days.
Spread-F conditions observed for Southern Aus/Antarctic regions
with an expected decrease in this behaviour as geomagnetic activity
declines with the current coronal hole moving out of geoeffective
position.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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