[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 09:59:53 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. 
Expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours. A weak partial 
halo CME was observed in SOHO LASCO imagery to occur shortly 
before 1900UT. This was most likely a backside event and is not 
expected to impact on the Earth. A trans-equatorial coronal hole 
is currently passing solar meridian and should move into geoeffective 
position on the 14th or 15th of Jan. Expect elevated solar wind 
speeds and a widespread increase in geomagnetic activity levels 
at this time. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210011
      Darwin               2   12110011
      Learmonth            3   22110011
      Culgoora             3   02200012
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             3   12210012
      Hobart               3   12211011
      Casey(Ant)           7   24-21111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     5    Quiet 
14 Jan     6    Quiet 
15 Jan    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very quiet over the past 24 
hours at all latitudes. Expected to continue at very quiet activity 
levels for the next 24-48 hours. An increase in geomagnetic activity 
can be expected to occur on Jan 15 in response to elevated solar 
wind speeds from a coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions were generally depressed at low latitudes 
over the last 24 hours, particularly overnight and in the early 
afternoon hours. However mostly normal HF conditions were observed 
at mid and high latitudes. Expect these HF propagation conditions 
to continue for the next 24-48 hours. Jan 15 may see further 
depressions, particularly at high latitudes in response to elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    -4    Depressed to 20% in the N.Aus/PNG region / Near 
                predicted monthly values S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
14 Jan     0    Depressed to 20% in the N.Aus/PNG region / Near 
                predicted monthly values S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
15 Jan     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: The ionosphere showed some large depressions in the 
N.Aus/PNG regions, particularly overnight and in the early afternoon 
hours. Minor depressions were also evident during the day at 
some mid-latitude Australian stations, while the NZ,subAntarctic 
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. These conditions are 
likely to continue for the next 24-48 hours. Jan 15 may see further 
depressions in the high latitude regions in response to elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list