[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 9 10:54:31 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 930 produced several minor B-class flares. Solar wind
speed decreased from 600km/s (1600UT) and is currently 550km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT
for most of the UT day. The 10MeV proton event is still in progress
and is expected to finish in the next 12-24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to range from low to moderate, as Region 930's magnetic
complexity has simplified over the last 24 hours but it is still
capable of producing M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Unsettled to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 22 34543333
Darwin 18 34443323
Townsville 20 24444333
Learmonth 26 35544333
Camden 19 24543223
Canberra 20 24543233
Hobart 19 24543232
Casey(Ant) 26 4--54433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Camden 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Hobart 70 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25 5454 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 25 active
10 Dec 20 active
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 8 December
and is current for interval 8-9 December. Geomagnetic activity
ranged between Unsettled to Minor Storm levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remains at elevated levels after a recent
coronal hole and a glancing blow CME from the X9-class flare
on 5Dec. A transient from the glancing blow CME was correlated
with a Forbush decrease observed at 0400UT. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain at Active levels over the next 2 days with
possible isolated Minor Storm periods with further glancing
blow CME's expected from 6Dec M and X-class flares.
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0435UT on 08 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Disturbed periods observed for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours with mostly depressed conditions.
High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions due to PCA effects
as the 10MeV proton event is in progress (expected to finish
in next 12-24 hours). With elevated geomagnetic activity expected
over the next 2 days, minor to significant degraded HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs are possible for low to mid latitudes
with poor HF conditions for trans-polar circuits while PCA event
is in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Disturbed periods and generally depressed ionospheric
support observed for Northern Aus and Equatorial regions over
the last 24 hours. Same with Southern Aus/NZ regions with instances
of sporadic E also observed over those regions. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic conditions due to PCA effects from the
proton event that is in progress (expected to end in next 12-24
hours). Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: ~550 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 96900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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