[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 8 10:52:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1916UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region 930 produced several C-class flares and a M2.0(1913UT)
flare. There is still no LASCO C3 imagery to confirm CME's. Solar
wind speed increased to 600km/s (0700UT) and is curently unknown
due to the insufficient ACE satellite data during the proton
event that is in progress. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-7nT
throughout the UT day. The proton event that began yesterday
is still in progress, with proton energy values >= 100MeV
currently above 10pfu. Solar activity is expected to remain at
moderate to high levels for the next three days with possible X
class events as region 930 has not changed in overall sunspot
size or magnetic complexity.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 930.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 17 33434323
Darwin 12 32324322
Townsville 15 3343-2-3
Learmonth 19 33435323
Camden 14 33433322
Canberra 16 33434322
Hobart 16 33434322
Casey(Ant) 24 4-543334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 28 3435 5353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 25 active
09 Dec 25 active
10 Dec 20 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged between Quiet to Active
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed has increased to 600km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Active levels for the
next 2 days with possibility of isolated minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours with some isolated disturbed periods and
depressions. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions due
to PCA effects as a proton event is in progress. With an increase
in geomagnetic activity expected over the next 2 days, minor to
significant degraded HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are
possible for mid latitudes with poor HF conditions for trans-polar
circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 6 December
and is current for interval 6-8 December. Some disturbed periods
and depressions observed for Northern Aus and Equatorial regions
as well as Southern Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Poor
ionospheric support for Antarctic conditions due to PCA effects
from the proton event that is in progress. Similar conditions
are expected for Southern Aus/NZ regions and Antarctic regions
for the next 2 days with the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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