[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 15 09:34:35 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day with only 
a couple of low B-class Xray flares from Region AR904 (S13E10). 
This region has decreased in overall size but grown slightly 
in magnetic complexity with the emergence of some small spots 
between the leader and trailer spots. However solar activity 
is still expected to remain at very low levels over the next 
3 days. The solar wind speed is very low at less than 300km/s. 
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was for the most 
part mildly Southward, fluctuating between -4nT and 0nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Culgoora             1   11001001
      Camden               4   12112121
      Canberra             0   00001001
      Hobart               1   01002000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     4    Quiet 
16 Aug     4    Quiet 
17 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet over the UT day. 
Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Equatorial and low 
latitudes again experienced some variability in HF conditions 
during the day, in particular MUF depressions after local dawn. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail at all latitudes 
over the next few days with ongoing variability in the equtorial 
region. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Variable enhancements and depressions over UT day. 
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values/ depressed to 15% 
                after local dawn 
16 Aug    17    Near predicted monthly values/ depressed to 15% 
                after local dawn 
17 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal. 
The PNG/N.Australian regions showed some variability in MUF with 
depressions up to 20% after local dawn. The S.Aus/NZ regions 
showed 15% MUF enhancements over the local night. Expect mostly 
normal conditions to prevail next 2-3 days, with further variability 
at equatorial and low latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    50000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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