[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day with only 
a series of B-class Xray flares from Region AR904 (S12E28). This 
region has simplified further in magnetic complexity and solar 
activity is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed settled back to 320km/s over the day and the 
interplanetary Bz component was relatively quiet, fluctuating 
between +/-2nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Learmonth            1   01010100
      Culgoora             0   00010001
      Camden               4   11112121
      Canberra             0   10010000
      Hobart               0   01010000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2322 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     3    Quiet 
15 Aug     4    Quiet 
16 Aug     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet over the UT day. 
Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail for the next three 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Equatorial and low 
latitudes experienced some variability in HF conditions during 
the day. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail at all 
latitudes over the next few days with ongoing variability in 
the equtorial region. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    10    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal. 
The PNG/N.Australian regions showed some variability in MUF with 
a strong enhancement at ~04UT and depressions up to 30% during 
the day. Expect mostly normal conditions to prevail next 2-3 
days, however variability at equatorial and low latitudes may 
persist. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    80600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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