[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 600 km/s due to a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream. The interplanetary Bz component was mostly 
southward for the first half of UT day 7 August (up to - 10nT) and
settled to neutral for the rest of the day. The effects of the 
coronal hole will disipate over the next 2 days when another 
weak cornal hole moves into a geoeffective position. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   23454431
      Darwin              21   34444432
      Learmonth           24   33454531
      Culgoora            18   23454320
      Camden              16   23353322
      Canberra            23   24464320
      Hobart              22   23464320
      Casey(Ant)          19   23443-4-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    12    Unsettled 
09 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Due to coronal hole effects the geomagnetic field had 
unsettled to minor storm levels for the UT day of 7 August. Expect 
the geomagnetic field to settle over the next two days when another 
high speed wind stream may cause active levels to prevail. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E, otherwise normal 
HF conditions should prevail. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    31500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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