[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 330 km/s. The interplanetary 
Bz component was mostly northward during the last 24 hours. A 
weak coronal hole may cause some active to unsettled levels at 
high latitudes today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               4   12211201
      Learmonth            4   12221201
      Culgoora             3   11111102
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             2   11112100
      Hobart               2   11102101
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Aug     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Due to coronal hole effects the geomagnetic field may 
have unsettled to active levels at high latitudes today. Expect 
low and mid latituds to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E, otherwise normal 
HF conditions should prevail. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 
08 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    43500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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