[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 3 09:48:29 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24 
hours. Activity originating from both regions 10865 and 10866. 
There is a possibility these regions could produce C-class x-ray 
flares over the next 2-3 days. Solar wind velocity has slowly 
decreased and is presently 280 km/s. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly northward and less 
than 5nT. SOHO LASCO images show a CME commencing at 0918 UT, 
02 April on west limb. It appears to be back side due to no associated 
front side activity noted. Therefore, should have minimal terrestrial 
effects. 

IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 865,number 866,number 866.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101011
      Darwin               2   21001---
      Learmonth            2   22001000
      Culgoora             0   10000001
      Camden               7   21211233
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               0   11000000
      Casey(Ant)           4   23211001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     6    Quiet 
04 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail today with quiet 
to unsettled conditions the following two days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2-3 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
05 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail over the next 
2-3 days with a possibility of high latitude distubances. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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