[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:26:17 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. There 
was a southeast directed CME, first visible in LASCO C3 imagery 
at 0240UT. This was most likely a backside event. A southern 
hemisphere coronal hole is now moving into geoeffective position. 
Solar wind speeds have so far remained at nominal levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2232 3322
      Darwin               9   2222 3322
      Learmonth           11   2222 3422
      Culgoora             7   1222 2322
      Canberra             9   2232 2321
      Hobart               9   2232 3221
      Casey(Ant)          10   2332 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3423 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep    12    Unsettled 
01 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A brief minor disturbance was observed on the IPS magnetometer 
network at 17UT. Expect conditions to remain mostly quiet with 
unsettled periods possible, mainly at high latitudes, due to 
sustained southward Bz. Solar wind parameters have remained stable 
despite a favourably positioned coronal hole. 
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1703UT on 28 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days. 
Possible periods of degradation mainly at high latitudes in association 
with elevated geomagnetic levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    28    near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    25    near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Persistent spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic 
regions mainly during local night. Mild depressions observed 
before local dawn at low latitudes, recovering quickly post-dawn. 
Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with possibility 
of minor degradations at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    48900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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