[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              75/13




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2233 2222
      Darwin               8   2223 2222
      Learmonth            8   2223 2222
      Culgoora             9   2224 2122
      Canberra             7   223- 2112
      Hobart               8   233- 211-
      Casey(Ant)          10   3332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   4323 4223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    16    Unsettled to active 
29 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Sep    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic field to go from unsettled to 
active due to coronal hole in geoeffective location. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhancements up to 50% noted, otherwise
      mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin showed Sporadic E blanketing at 06UT,
      otherwise, near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values, with spread F
      noted during local night, 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values,
      with spread F noted during local night.
      Mawson showed Sporadic E blanketing 08-19UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    30    near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    26    near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    26    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions may show mild degradations in southern 
Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:   10.4 p/cc  Temp:    61800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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