[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 3 09:47:55 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no notable flare activity. Solar activity is expected to
remain at low to very low levels for the next 3 days. LASCO imagery
indicated a full halo CME from the B4-class event which occured
late on 01Sep at 2300UT. The Solar wind speed was steady at around
420km/s till 1340UT at which a transient was detected, most likely
from a faint full halo CME from 31Aug. The solar wind speed then
increased to 700km/s at 1800UT, and is currently 670km/s at the
time of this report. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between neutral and -5nT between
0000UT and 1400UT at which Bz turned and remained southward (-15nT)
till 1800UT due to the transient effects.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1339UT on
02 Sep.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
02/0425UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 2234 4543
Learmonth 22 2224 3554
Culgoora 21 2244 4443
Canberra 21 2244 4442
Hobart 24 2244 4454
Casey(Ant) 24 3333 3633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 97 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 21 5533 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Sep 20 active
05 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours, with the storming effects due
to the faint full halo CME on 31Aug. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor Storm
conditions for 04Sep with the anticipated arrival of the full
CME that occured late on 01Sep.
A weak (24nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1419UT on 02 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions possible for mid to high latitudes
over the next 2 days. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
in all other regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions for Southern Aus/Nz
regions expected to continue for the next 2 days with anticipated
elevated geomagnetic conditions from recent full halo CME's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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