[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 2 09:41:38 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no notable flare activity. Solar activity is expected to
remain at low to very low levels, with the continual decay of
the regions currently on disc. The Solar wind speed was steady
at around 500km/s for most of the UT day, then falling to be
450km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT
over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 3323 3112
Learmonth 10 3323 3012
Culgoora 9 2323 3112
Canberra 8 2323 3012
Hobart 10 3323 3113
Casey(Ant) 12 4332 3112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 80 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 36 2223 5665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
04 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 31 August and
is current for interval 31 August to 2 September. Quiet to Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions were observed over the last 24 hours,
with the storming effects from the coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream arrival on 31Aug abating around 0100UT 01Sep. Unsettled
to Active conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions possible for high latitudes
over the next 2 days. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
in all other regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Possible depressed periods for Southern Aus/NZ regions
expected to continue for 02Sep, with conditions improving from
03Sep onwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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